In the worst of times for his sport, War of Will keeps overachieving
Updated, Monday, May 27
In a Triple Crown racing season of horror after horror, the start of the Preakness Stakes was as bizarre as anything so far. A Hall of Fame jockey, John Velazquez, was pitched from his horse, Bodexpress, as the gate opened. An inexcusable malfunction, lack of communication – yes there was a wall of noise – among the gate crew.
Just as in the Kentucky Derby, an accident that could have been catastrophic turned out to be harmless except to those who had wagered on Bodexpress.
Johnny V emerged unscathed, while his horse ran on without him, outracing a couple of those with jockeys. Had he won without his rider it would not have counted, of course, but would have added to the muddled debate about authenticity of Triple Crown jewels.
As it happened, the winner of the Preakness, War of Will, seems almost an afterthought, finishing 8th in the Derby and rising to 7th because of the infinitely contested disqualification of Maximum Security.
And then in his next race, gatekeeper malfunction detracts from his legacy as Preakness champion. Velazquez lamented: “Seems like I’m getting more press than the winner, War of Will.”
There’s a taint here of victory-by-default, with the Derby’s official winner and the disqualified winner both skipping the Preakness, along with several who, unlike War of Will, had won other Grade 1 stakes.
No Game Winner, no Roadster, no Tacitus. Not much of Improbable, favored though he was in the Derby and Preakness. Let’s not even get into Omaha Beach.
So Bob Baffert is out of the money for two-thirds of the Triple Crown, and War of Will emerges as a redemption story. He’s not the fastest in his class, but maybe the smartest and most agile.
He responded to his smart and agile jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, to prevent a chain collision in the Derby. War of Will had to break stride and swerve right to avoid Maximum Security. The narrow escape move was perfectly executed by the 24-year-old jockey.
The Derby was saved from tragedy if not quite from ridicule, with War of Will brushing the side of Country House just enough to alter the course of history, send it reeling, in fact. So what could have more karma than War of Will winning the Preakness?
Let’s not forget his miserable fortune in his final prep, the Louisiana Derby. Most uncharacteristically, he stumbled soon after the start, finished 9th with hind-quarter soreness. Canadian trainer Mark Casse, who’s more accomplished on turf than dirt, shipped the colt to Kentucky for rest, rehab and training for the Derby. He was all but forgotten.
It hardly mattered that he was working like an Olympian. He had three bullets leading into the first Saturday in May, but he was a mere 16-1 when the gates opened, this time as they were supposed to do. War of Will appeared back to peak form as he advanced through the stretch. Then his momentum was stopped, however inadvertently, by Maximum Security.
Even though he finished 4 ½ lengths back and was clearly impeded by the jumpy leader, War of Will posted a career-best Beyer rating of 95. He came out fresher than most of the others.
He was trending upward entering the 144th Preakness, and he was the No. 2 betting choice at 6-1.
Drawing the No. 1 post in the overcrowded Derby field was not helpful, but in the Preakness it was beneficial. The rail tends to be livelier at Pimlico than in the other Triple Crown tracks—a fact too often ignored by trainers and jockeys. Old Hilltop on this time was dry and firm at the rail, so Gaffalione got a ground-saving inside trip on the way to a 2-length margin over the lightly credentialed Everfast.
Casse is conditioning War of Will for the Belmont Stakes a week from Saturday. It may be a reach for a colt who’s raced as hard as this one – 10 career starts, 7 at two turns. Only four of the Derby starters came back two weeks later to race in the Preakness. Except for WOW, none finished better than 5th.
Even if he’s not worn down, there’s considerable doubt he has the stamina for the 1½-mile Belmont. His sire, War Front, was a champion sprinter. War of Will is the first of his progeny to win at more than nine furlongs.
Tacitus, son of Tapit and the eventual 3rd-place finisher in the Derby, may be better DNA-d for the Test of Champions and is definitely fresher. On Preakness Day he had to do nothing more rigorous than a 4-furlong breeze under the eye of Bill Mott, who also trains Country House, the belatedly crowned Derby champion who’s recovering from illness.
Prior to the first Saturday in May, Mott considered Tacitus to be more ready for Triple Crown glory than Country House. The slop of Churchill may have compromised Tacitus more than his stablemate.
Not to be overlooked in the emerging Belmont field is Owendale, who finished third in the Preakness without much direction from Florent Geroux. A talented jockey who seems to have lost his bearings, Geroux steered Baffert’s Roadster into heavy traffic in the Derby and Owendale to the outer reaches of the Preakness field.
Baffert, having the most disappointing Triple Crown season of his career, is sending the faded juvenile champion, Game Winner, to the Belmont. The Hall of Fame trainer himself will not be there, as he’s taking family leave, attending his son’s graduation from middle school.
Game Winner was 5th in the Preakness, taking, as always, a wide course. He hasn’t won in his three races this year.
So I wouldn’t be surprised if War of Will is the Belmont favorite, both morning-line and sentimentally. The workingman’s horse saved the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness and deserves a start in the Belmont. Casse has had him ready to fire every time, and there’s a push-button connection with Gaffalione. In a sport beset with adversity, War of Will seems destined to deal with it.
