Moneyball faces the ultimate test with Cole pitching for Yankees
Updated Friday, October 9, 2020
From all appearances, the people of San Diego could not be less excited about postseason big-league baseball in their city. That’s because (1) there are no fans being admitted to Petco Park and (2) the local team is no longer participating in the sport’s postseason.
The Padres were ushered out of their home away from home in Arlington, Texas, swept away by their neighboring Los Angeles Dodgers.
At least we can say Friday night’s game (6:10 CST) between the New York Yankees and the “home” Tampa Bay Rays will be top-tier entertainment on TBS. With the best-of-5 series we will see a fascinating conclusion to an American League Division Series between two teams that could not be more evenly matched or more contrasting in appearance and cost.
This is, foremost, a matchup of Big Money and Little Money. It seems implausible that the Yankees, with their $250 million roster, can lose to the backwater of Tampa Bay, whose payroll of $27 million ranks 29th of the 30 big-league teams.
The Rays, with general manager Erik Neander, 37, and field manager Kevin Cash, 42, are the masters of Moneyball, made famous by Billy Beane, Brad Pitt and the Oakland Athletics. One of the principles is that if you can’t afford stars, you can get similar results by selectively combining the skills of middle-class players.
But this means you probably won’t have the best pitcher in the key game in a series against the New York Yankees. Gerrit Cole, baseball’s wealthiest pitcher, at $36 million a year, will pitch tonight against the $566,000 Tyler Glasnow.
The Yankees are betting favorites with Cole, but you might wonder if he’s been a bit oversold. He’s had a solid season – 7-3, 2.84 ERA – but he’s less dominating than he was in the two prior seasons with the Houston Astros.
Pedro Martinez, Hall of Fame pitcher who provides analysis on MLB Network, cited a “mechanical flaw” in Cole’s delivery that produces an imperfect finish. In the opener of this series the Rays scored three runs off Cole in six innings.
Cole is likely to be further compromised by having to pitch on short rest – three days instead of the usual four.
Of course, he’s being totally professional about it: “When the lights turn on, it doesn’t matter if it’s three, four, five, six or seven days. You’ve got to do your job.”
Glasnow is on even shorter rest, though he had shorter work in his Game 2 start on Tuesday: 5 innings, in which he allowed 4 earned runs but struck out 10.
It’s curious that in postseason ball so many managers change what has worked well throughout the regular season, however lengthy it may be. But this may work to the advantage of the Rays, who are a study in constant change and innovation.
Cash used 57 different lineups in the first 58 games.
Most ballplayers say they perform better when they’re batting in a familiar slot. Such players will not be with Tampa long, but they have a farm system – ranked No. 1 by MLB.com — that constantly replenishes.
The Rays have an opener but not a designated closer. Glasnow has the opener role for Game 5. Cash would like for him to navigate the Yankees power line one time before he switches to the lefthanded Blake Snell, Tampa’s Game 1 starter.
As for closing, who knows? Twelve Tampa pitchers have saves, tying the 1973 Rangers for most in the majors since saves became an official stat in 1969. The Rangers used their 12th saving reliever in their 148th game, the Rays in their 53rd.
You can be sure Cash will find use for Nick Anderson, who in Game 3 was part of another Rays trick: four outfielders when he walked to the mound in the seventh inning with two on and no outs. He left after six up, six down, and four strikeouts. He’s kryptonite to Bronx power, has retired all 16 Yankees he’s faced in his career.
“Pretty Rays standard,’’ Anderson said. “It’s what kind of pulls us together.’’
Indeed, the Rays are 28-0 when leading after the seventh inning. Also bolstering their confidence is that they won the irregular season series, 8-2, so they feel understandably confident about their postseason chances.
But the Yankees are quick to point out that they’re a different team now, with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton healthy. But healthy all along – and being little noticed – is Luke Voit, who led the majors this year in home runs with 22. He homered Thursday – 453 feet — for the Yanks’s first run, and they led the rest of the way, finishing at 5-1.
This is already a memorable series. The Yankees struck out 18 times in Game 2 – a postseason record. It was no shock to Aaron Boone: “You are up against as good as strikeout and pitching team as there is in the league.”
The Rays have the advantage of low expectations that accompany low payroll. But they’re the No. 1 seed in the American League. They’re not sneaking up on anybody now.
