Analytics detracts from the drama: no duel between Urias and Webb
Updated Friday, October 15, 2021
It used to be that an “opener” in baseball was employed only by teams that were short on real starting pitchers. So they had to piece together a bullpen game. This was not supposed to happen to a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the deepest and richest pitching staff in baseball. And with a 20-game winner, Julio Urias, fully rested and ready to start the elimination game in a National League Division Series.
But we’re now in the glorious world of analytics, where just about every manager and general manager is looking for the slightest of edges by shaking up lineups and pitching staffs in the most whimsical of ways.
So on the eve of Game 5 in San Francisco, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sent Giants manager Gabe Kapler a text message informing him of a change of plans. Urias wouldn’t be starting. Instead, there would be an opener, the little-known Corey Knebel, in a cameo. Urias would enter later.
Roberts didn’t want his counterpart to think he was being sneaky. The truth, as Roberts later admitted to reporters, was that this key decision came “from above.”
And it worked out fine for the Dodgers, even if it may be remembered as a dark day for the sport of baseball. Another tradition bites the dust.
By starting Knebel, a right-hander, the Dodgers forced the Giants to decide if they wanted to set their lineup to match up with Knebel or optimize it for facing the lefthanded Urias. Kapler would have to make more substitutions early in the game.
Urias did get to pitch Thursday night, and he was his usual impeccable big-game self. The 25-year-old from Mexico allowed one run in four innings. And the Dodgers beat their century-old rivals 2-1 to advance to the NL Championship Series, beginning Saturday night in Atlanta.
After the Dodgers on Thursday made a middle reliever out of their starter, they made a closer out of another starter, the indomitable Max Scherzer. The 37-year-old Scherzer finished off the Giants in the ninth inning, with the aid of plate umpire Gabe Morales, who disagreed with the rest of America by calling a game-ending third strike on a checked swing by Wilmer Flores.
Not to suggest that was a critical error. The bases were empty. And though Flores does have some power (18 home runs this year), he wasn’t likely to go deep on Scherzer, who in the 12 1/3 innings of this postseason has allowed only one homer.
Still, it adds to an overall feeling of disappointment that wrapped this series, regardless of who you wanted to win. Ballfans were looking forward to a pitcher’s duel, and I mean starting pitchers, the two who have performed the most brilliantly in this postseason. The Dodgers had won the last 17 games Urias started. The Giants were sending 24-year-old phenom Logan Webb. They’d won 11 of the last 12 that he started.
Webb did his part Thursday night, throwing 7 innings of 1-run ball. But then he gave way to a bullpen that’s one of MLB’s best but wasn’t quite good enough this time.
The winning run was driven in, most ironically, by the most downfallen baseball star this side of Christian Yelich. Cody Bellinger was playing first base only because the Dodgers’ most productive slugger, Max Muncy, was injured. Bellinger hit .165 in a season in which he was trying to recover from a shoulder injury. He repeatedly showed he couldn’t catch up to 95 mph pitches. He hit .150 against fastballs this season.
So in the most significant 9th inning of the season, the Giants had to feel comfortable with Bellinger up against the 101 mph speed of Camilo Doval.
Except that the Giants decided to do the unexpected: fool Bellinger with sliders. In fact, four in a row, the last of which didn’t fool anyone. It landed in the middle of the plate before it landed in the grass of right-center field. Bellinger’s single drove in the slow-footed Justin Turner from second base with the winning run.
The rest of the drama was left to Scherzer, Flores and Morales.
Roberts felt sad for Urias: “I think that the first look is to say that it’s a slight on Julio. But it actually is a compliment to him being able to adjust, and also allowing for other guys to have the best opportunity to take down outs. He completely understood the thought behind it.’’
I’m glad he understood. But I don’t think I can.
