Mark Roberson: Trojans, Mounties overrated, Gamecocks fly
Examining the CFB Pre-Season Top 25 Rankings
We are now one week away from the return of college football and the preseason rankings are set. Here are my first impressions of the top-25 rankings, examining a few teams that the prognosticators got wrong.
Overranked Teams
- USC Trojans (No. 15 in both Coaches and AP)
The Trojans don’t have Sam Darnold anymore and rank eighth in the Pac 12 in returning starters. Only six starters return on defense, which will be the most problematic unit for the Trojans this coming year. USC will play away games at Stanford, Texas and Arizona, as well as a difficult non-conference, home matchup with Notre Dame. I have USC marked for at least four losses this season, putting them towards the bottom of this year’s top-25 final standings or worse.
- West Virginia Mountaineers (No. 17 AP, 20 Coaches)
WVU lost five regular season games last season and finished outside the top-25. This year, both the Coaches and Associated Press are calling for a top-20 finish. Only returning five defensive starters from a year ago, in a conference that thrives on the offensive side of the ball, will make things tough on the Mountaineers. Their final four games of the season will be played against Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Two of those, TCU and Oklahoma, will be played in Morgantown and in each instance the visitors will be favored. I wish returning QB Will Grier the best of luck against these lofty expectations. He’s going to need it.
Underrated Teams
- South Carolina Gamecocks (Unranked)
A 9-4 team last season, the Gamecocks have been overlooked among the top-heavy SEC East. After two seasons, it seems that head coach Will Muschamp has finally found his head coaching fit. The Georgia Bulldogs are in for a fight the second week of the season when they travel to Columbia, South Carolina. A game which I believe these Gamecocks will have a good chance to win. I expect junior QB Jake Bentley to come into his own this season, and with the defense as this team’s cornerstone, they will be a tough out for the likes of Georgia, Florida and even Clemson.
- Oregon Ducks (No. 24 AP, Unranked in Coaches)
Last year Oregon was saddled with a 7-6 record, which at the surface does not bode well for their 2018 forecast. The primary cause for this was a collar bone injury to starter Justin Herbert. The Ducks were 6-2 in games where Herbert played last season and 1-4 in the games he missed. Now a junior, Herbert is poised for a breakout and I have him as a Davey O’Brien dark horse this season. Oregon’s weak schedule will give them an outside chance at the Pac-12 this season. In order to do that, they must beat either Stanford or Washington at home, which is certainly a possibility.
- Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 18 AP and Coaches)
Joe Moorhead is now the head coach in Starkville and it will not be the step down from Dan Mullen that many thought. Another excellent QB coach, he has nine starters returning on offense, including senior Heisman hopeful Nick Fitzgerald. The real tests for the Bulldogs this season will be a home game versus Auburn and a road matchup against LSU, both to be played in October. Assuming Fitzgerald can stay healthy and they come out on top in those two matchups, don’t be surprised to see the Bulldogs in contention for an at-large playoff bid with just one loss on the road to top-ranked Alabama.
