Baseball season begins this week, Adam Duvall puts his life on line

With Major League Baseball opening this week, nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room.  A dead elephant.   What if a baseball player dies from COVID-19?

Unfortunately, it’s not far-fetched.  Drawing from what I learned in a course on probability at Vanderbilt University, there’s more than a 50-50 chance a big-league ballplayer dies from a pandemic that already has cost 140,000 American lives, with numbers spiking in most cities.

Let’s do some math.  Last week, testing each player multiple times, Major League Baseball was happy to find only five new infections.  Projecting that rate for the 2-month season would bring a total of 40, before the postseason begins. 

We can expect 40-50% to be asymptomatic, but by my calculations at least 8 or 9 players could have serious long-term health issues.  Commissioner Manfred should pin a purple heart on their chests.

The overall fatality rate for the disease is approximately 4.5%, though we can assume it’s lower for athletes aged 20-35, as are most major-league players.  If it’s 2.5%, that would mean a statistical expectation of 40 X .025 = 1.0 deaths.

But exposure for the teams was minimal last week.  They were not traveling, not living in hotels, not riding in a bus whose driver hasn’t been tested or in a plane with untested flight attendants.

Surely the infection rate rises substantially with all the distancing, social and not, as the schedule unfolds.  Tampa Bay pitcher Blake Snell was not hugely exaggerating when he famously said in May, “The risk is through the roof.”

I was surprised Snell decided to play anyway.  He probably felt pressure from teammates who believe, with justification, that the hardscrabble yet well-armed Rays have a very real shot at the American League pennant.  They’re brilliantly managed by Kevin Cash and 15-deep in quality pitching.  Snell, a 2018 Cy Young Award winner, is only their No. 3 starter.

Snell is taking far less risk than some.  What about players with “underlying” conditions?   People with asthma or diabetes have much higher than average mortality if they contract the virus.  

Jordan Hicks, 26-year-old closer of the St. Louis Cardinals, has Type 1 diabetes.  He made a prudent decision to skip the 2020 mini-season.

I worry about Adam Duvall, 31-year-old Atlanta Brave, being too brave indeed.  He has Type 1 diabetes.  In this high-risk group he can opt out and still receive his prorated salary for the 60 games.

But Duvall, who hit 10 home runs in 41 games last year, has committed to play.  He feels safe because he’s maintaining proper blood-glucose levels while following the Covid protocols.  “I don’t feel like I’m in any danger,” he said, whistling past the graveyard.  

I should hope Vegas doesn’t have a line on this, but if it did, Duvall would be listed as one most likely to die.  He’s especially vulnerable living in Georgia, where the governor is stunningly oblivious to the pandemic.  

Last week Brian Kemp went so far as to sue the mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Bottoms, to prevent her from mandating the wearing of facemasks, which scientists say block 70 percent of Covid-bearing droplets projected from human mouths and noses.

Kemp is in lockstep with Donald Trump, the anti-scientist who said that requiring people to cover their faces is “a violation of their personal freedoms.”  He also supports the public display of Confederate flags as an expression of “freedom of speech.”   Curiously, he sends federal troops to Portland, Oregon, to handcuff and tear-gas people who are peacefully advocating for Black Lives Matter.  Not so much freedom of speech for them.

After platooning in left field with Mike Markakis last year, Duvall has the job to himself as long as he stays free of Covid.  Although Markakis, 36, has no special conditions that allow him to opt out with pay, he decided to forego $1.5 million and stay home.  

Markakis made the decision after talking with a Covid-stricken teammate, All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman, who “didn’t sound good at all.”

In fact, the 30-year-old Freeman had a 104.5-degree fever and thought he was dying.  He prayed: “Please don’t take me; I’m not ready.”

He sounds much better now, experiencing no symptoms since July 5, working out at his home in suburban Atlanta and testing negative on Friday, for the second time during the week.  Freeman hopes to be in the lineup when the Braves open against the Mets at Citi Field on Friday night.

Adam Duvall may be doing his part to dodge the virus.  But he could be helpless if others within six feet –- or even farther — propel droplets in his direction, by coughing, sneezing or merely by talking.  

The odds, whether officially posted or not, are vastly in his favor; this is hardly Russian roulette.  But if he – or some other big-league ballplayer — ends up being a martyr, what happens then?  Does the season end?  Is it too late to ask how much it really matters?  There are unsettling questions to ponder in this historic health crisis that too many politicians and common citizens try to ignore.