Astros are better than you think: Baker inspires, Strom rearms
This is supposed to be a redemption year for the Houston Astros. Spring training begins with no echoes of trashcan-banging. And health is on the way for the 2017 American League MVP, Jose Altuve, 2019 Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez, and the every year ace-to-be, Lance McCullers Jr.
But then there are new injuries. Framber Valdez, pitching star of the last postseason, is probably lost for this season after fracturing a finger while barehanding a hot groundball in his spring debut. Also gone is their best pitching prospect, 23-year-old Forrest Whitley, undergoing Tommy John surgery, which paused McCullers’ career and may have ended Justin Verlander’s.
Still, you can believe in the bats. Not even the world-champion Dodgers or the fabled Yankees have a lineup more murderous. George Springer will be missed, but Myles Straw, 26, covers more center field and brings speed to the basepaths. Kyle Tucker, 24, is poised for a breakout year in right, while left fielder Michael Brantley at 33 remains one of the most reliable of ballplayers, the type of high-contact, all-fields batsman that’s all but extinct.
With the exception of designated slugger Alvarez, these Astros are two-way players, as committed to defense as to offense. Dusty Baker, beginning his 24th season as a big-league manager, said, “This is one of the best defensive teams I’ve ever had.” Zooming on MLB Network, Baker showed youthful enthusiasm at 71: “You should see these guys take infield; they have fun and they take pride in catching the ball.”
Carlos Correa in 2020 committed just one error and led the league in defensive runs saved at the most challenging infield post. He throws 97 mph, and he’s so tall (6-4) and rangy that spectacular saves by other shortstops are routine outs for him.
Baker, who’s a font of wisdom and a calming presence in any storm, counts on the defense to bail out a pitching staff that’s constantly rearming. “We don’t know about our pitching,” he admitted with characteristic candor. “But I think Jose Urquidy will be a big surprise after missing a month of last season with Covid. And Lance McCullers is two years removed from Tommy John. I think Lance will be great in his option year, when players tend to perform better. And this is Zack Greinke’s option year. He knows how to pitch.”
He should know how to pitch, given that Greinke is 37. He’s been losing velocity for years, but his excruciatingly slow curve has so much bend it’s almost unhittable. Sometimes he tells batters the curve is on the way and they still can’t hit it.
As for McCullers, he’s at the perfect age of 27, still at his physical peak, throwing 95 mph, but now with enough experience to outthink batters the way Greinke does.
In the first year following Tommy John elbow reconstruction, pitchers usually do not have as much snap on the breaking ball as they have the second year after. McCullers is expanding his arsenal beyond his magical knuckle curve. “I’m throwing changeups and cutters and sinkers,” he says. “My four-seamer is not as good as some. But I can spin it.”
McCullers threw 24 consecutive curves to clinch a pennant in 2017. This year he should be better than ever, though you always wonder if he can notch 130 innings, because he never has.
Urquidy as a rookie in 2019 won a postseason start in Yankee Stadium. And though he missed half of what there was of 2020, he had four quality starts in five tries. His ERA was 2.73. He’s 25.
Another starter with upside is Christian Javier, 24. He was 5-2 in the 60-game season with a 3.48 ERA. And when Valdez had to be replaced, general manager James Click smartly took Jake Odorizzi off the free-agent board. Odorizzi won 15 games for Minnesota in 2019 and should have plenty left at 31.
The Astros aren’t ruling out getting some use out of Valdez this year. His fractured ring finger is scary, but I remember another lefty’s remarkable recovery from a similar yet more harrowing injury. The Mets’ Bob Ojeda sheared off a third of his left index finger in a gardening accident in 1987. The severed part was reattached but imperfectly, causing Ojeda’s changeup to have a slightly altered movement that made it more effective. He pitched 190 innings in 1988 and had a 2.88 ERA.
As long as Brent Strom is their pitching coach (he’s 72), expect the Astros to be solid on the mound. Strom is famous for boosting spin rates and teaching pitchers to throw high fastballs that make their breaking ball more difficult to track.
Houston’s bullpen offers myriad arm angles and benefits from the arrival – pending release from Covid quarantine — of Pedro Baez, 21-15, 3.05 ERA in seven very consistent years with the Dodgers. Ryan Pressly saved 12 games for the Astros in the 2020 mini-season despite knee and elbow soreness. He’s healthy now.
And look for the batters to improve. Altuve had a miserable 2020 but hit .375 in the postseason with 5 home runs. Alex Bregman was so disappointed with his 6-homer season that he jacked his weight up 17 pounds. Vegas books him as second-favorite for AL MVP behind Mike Trout. Correa comes off his healthiest year since 2016 and credits a daily regimen of stretching and loosening his muscles to increase flexibility. He struggled with his swing last year but perfected it in time for the playoffs. He had 17 RBI in 13 postseason games. And this is his option year. The baseball world doesn’t want to see it, but the Astros could still be on the way up, the team to beat in the American League.
