Alan Truex: Zeke limited by marginal coaching, endless immaturity

LLANO, Texas – Ezekiel Elliott is in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, holding out for a new contract and conditioning himself to return to the Dallas Cowboys.  If we pay any attention to history, as most Americans do not, this won’t end so well for him or the team.  Recall what happened last time Zeke was in Cabo managing his training regimen.

In 2017, after undergoing a six-game suspension for domestic violence, he emerged from the resort in typical tourist condition, pumped up on margaritas.  He went on to play like a rather average NFL back: 983 yards rushing, 4.1 per carry. The Cowboys were 3-3 without him but only 6-4 with him.

Why should this Cabo sojourn turn out better?  Since when did Zeke learn from a mistake?

Granted, there’s no denying his remarkable overall production as an NFL running back.  For the first three years of his career he ranks third in average rushing yards per game – 101.2 — behind only Jim Brown and Earl Campbell.  For those of us who are lifelong Cowboys fans, it’s no reach to think Zeke at 24 is as good as Emmitt Smith ever was. 

It’s understandable Elliott copied Smith’s negotiating format.  In 1992 Smith led the league in rushing and the Cowboys to a Super Bowl championship.  He was contracted to earn $465,000 in 1993 – miniscule considering his contribution to his employer.  So he held out for two games. The Cowboys lost both games, so owner Jerry Jones caved and granted the player a four-year contract for $13.5 million.  

Smart move by Jones.  Smith rejoined the ‘Boys before it was too late; they repeated as Super Bowl champs.

The assumption many football pundits are making is that history will repeat, that Jones will give Zeke what he wants, or close to it.  Elliott wants to become the top earner among running backs, which means he’s shooting at Todd Gurley’s 4 years @ $57.5 million.

Elliott is bound by his rookie contract of 4 years @ $25 mil.  Understandably, he’s not happy as the 10th-highest-paid running back in the NFL.  He makes barely more than Cleveland’s third-down back Duke Johnson. 

Elliott’s contract provides a bump in 2020 for his fifth year (“club option”), to $9 million, which projects him as fourth-highest-paid at his position.  Even then, he would seem to be behind the market. But Jones is saying he’s “not gonna be a market setter.” He argues that the Cowboys’ brand is so special and brings so much endorsement value that Elliott should accept less than top scale.

The great injustice of the NFL is that most of its running backs do not last more than four years.  They typically peak in their second or third season, and then they begin wearing out. Having covered Herschel Walker as a collegian and a pro, I can testify that he ran faster (and averaged more per carry) as a freshman at Georgia than he ever did afterward.  

A more relevant example: Alfred Morris, recently signed by the Cowboys as Zeke insurance.  Morris rushed for 1,613 yards as a rookie for Washington in 2012. His yardage declined each of the three subsequent seasons.  

Now he’s 30 years old.  Does Jones really think he can replace Zeke Elliott?  Can the Cowboys count on fourth-rounder Tony Pollard? Or is it possible Elliott is hugely overrated?

Pro Football Focus ranks him ninth among NFL running backs – behind Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Chris McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon (another holdout), Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Le’Veon Bell and – are you sitting down? – Aaron Jones.   Last year Aaron Jones backed up Jamaal Williams.

PFF’s biggest knock on Zeke is that among the 36 players who had 300 rushing attempts over the past three years, he was 27th in eluding tackles.  You might wonder if his analytics would be better on a team with a sophisticated passing game that keeps defenses from ganging up on him.

Philadelphia’s Pro Bowl safety Malcolm Jenkins made the point that elusiveness is not Elliott’s style, that “he is probably the No. 1 contact-type runner in the league.  He’s looking to punish guys; he’s not trying to juke you.” I’m guessing PFF would have cut Earl Campbell. And Jerome Bettis.  

But it’s useful to consider that contact-type runners wear down faster than elusive types.  Campbell and Bettis were clearly over-the-hill at 29. Even if Elliott devotes himself to longevity training – no reason to think he will – he’s unlikely to outlast those two Hall of Famers. 

PFF evaluates players on how they perform on each play, but all plays are treated equally; there’s not much consideration of context.  Their experts downgrade Elliott because the only pass route he runs is a screen. Of course, they don’t evaluate the coaches. How wonderful would Alvin Kamara be if you lifted him from Sean Payton and installed him in Jason Garrett’s 1990s offense? 

No analytics will convince me there are eight more impactful running backs in the league than Zeke Elliott.   On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons for Jones to hold tight to his wallet. Elliott is as mercurial off the field as on.  He’s a much riskier investment than boring Emmitt Smith. It’s not like that six-game suspension was an aberration that can’t happen again.  

TMZ reported last week that the Cowboys conspired with Frisco, Tex., police to minimize a car wreck Elliott had while rushing to practice prior to a January 2017 playoff game.  

Elliott ran a red light and crashed into a vehicle driven by Ronnie Hill, who last year filed a lawsuit for $1 million, recently amended to $20 million.  The plaintiff claims injuries from the accident turned out more serious than originally thought. The Cowboys, the story goes, needed the coverup to prevent Elliott from being detoured into concussion protocol.   

And there are so many other troubling missteps.  Two years after the alleged sexual assault that brought his six-game ban, Elliott was seen on video pulling a woman’s top to expose a breast during a St. Patrick’s Day parade.  

And six months after the collision with Ronnie Hill, there was a late-night altercation at The Clutch bar in Dallas.  Two witnesses said Elliott knocked down a disc jockey named Dtrain, who was filmed writhing on the floor but did not press charges.   

Zeke seems to have a thing with disc jockeys.   At Drai’s After Hours Club in Las Vegas last January, the Hollywood-connected Franny Vegas Jr. (a/k/a Franzen) claimed he “tried to pick a fight with me.”

Of course, that story didn’t stay in Vegas.  Nor did the recent shove of a 19-year-old security guard that brought threats of litigation in Nevada and a summons in New York from Commissioner Roger Goodell.  

The Cowboys can be excused for thinking Elliott’s value is severely compromised by his off-field shenanigans.  To me, this looks like a problem that has no solution.