Alan Truex: Sale doesn’t look ready, numbers lie about Osuna

One of the most historic teams in baseball, the Boston Red Sox, are having their best season ever.  Franchise-record and major-league best 108 victories.  And yet, they enter the postseason a shaky favorite because their No. 1 pitcher, Chris Sale, has not thrown fast or long in three consecutive appearances.

Some will say that in the Age of the Bullpen, Sale is no big deal anyway.  The real strength of his team is a lineup that includes the probable MVP of the American League, Mookie Betts, and the likely runner-up, J.D. Martinez, who’s either leader or runner-up in the league in batting, home runs, runs scored and runs batted in.

Notice that other teams in this postseason have no one you could certify as an ace:  Milwaukee, Oakland and even the colossal New York Yankees, whose 19-game winner, Luis Severino, has two quality starts out of his past eight.

To which the new generation of seamheads say, So what?  Since relievers pitch a majority of the innings, isn’t the bullpen more important than the starting rotation?  So lay off Sale and Severino.  

Sorry, I can’t dismiss the significance of an elite starting pitcher, a Justin Verlander or Corey Kluber.  Or — if he’s at full speed — Chris Sale.

The Houston Astros won the last world championship with the best 4-man rotation in the sport.  Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton combined for a 9-4 postseason.

Which wasn’t good enough for Jeff Luhnow, their general manager, the seldom seen hand behind the curtain.  

He traded for Pittsburgh’s strongest arm, Gerrit Cole, who moved into Houston’s No. 2 slot. His 15 wins, 2.88 ERA, 276 strikeouts were almost as splashy as Verlander’s 16/2.54/290. 

But in this Age of the Bullpen the Astros may be behind the times.  Their relievers were 2-3 for the 2017 postseason.  The championship came through the wizardry and luck of manager A.J. Hinch.  His most inspired move: calling on McCullers for four innings of relief in ALCS Game 7.  McCullers struck out six, his knuckle curve untouchable.  He threw 24 of them in a row to close out the Yankees.

Another converted starter, Brad Peacock, became a bullpen mainstay through most of that glorious postseason.  Verlander and Morton also pitched selectively and effectively in relief. 

In case you’re a Red Sox fan and you’re wondering, it’s easier to turn a starter into a reliever than vice versa.  

Wisely, general manager Jeff Luhnow did not want to rely again on sudden conversions.  So in July he traded with Toronto for one of the most consistent of closers, Roberto Osuna.  The problem is Osuna’s erratic behavior at home.  MLB suspended the 23-year-old right-hander for 75 days when he was charged in Toronto with assaulting his girlfriend who had borne him a son.  

The case was dismissed last week when Osuna accepted a peace bond – no contact with his accuser for a year unless she requests it.  He also agreed to regular counseling for anger management.  Let’s not confuse this with exoneration.

But get real.  We shouldn’t expect a baseball closer to have the moral compass of a Supreme Court justice.  Logically, the bar for behavior by a 23-year-old ballplayer should not be higher than that of a judge or senator or a president of a large country.  

My issue with Osuna is that he’s not dominant enough on the mound to justify his moral lassitude.  Yes, his stats at first glance are fine: 12 saves, 2 holds, 1.99 ERA.  But frankly, he’s not as good as those numbers.  Too many shots to the warning track.  Not enough swings and misses.  His 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings is a worse ratio than every pitcher on the staff except lefthanded groundball machine Keuchel.

Something doesn’t seem real with Osuna, living too well on the edge.  He’s blown only one save, but that’s because fielders behind him have his back.  How do you find a gap with Jake Marisnick in center, Josh Reddick in right and George Springer, the starting center fielder, in a late-inning shift to left?  Osuna would have blown a save Friday in Baltimore if not for Marisnick’s diving scoop at his shoelaces.   

If Osuna falters, McCullers, who’s a fountain of 24-year-old confidence, is ready to close again.  And hopefully for good.  He’s never lasted 130 innings in a year, which indicates his arm is not suited to starting.  But he might be an ideal closer, like Boston’s Craig Kimbrel, who’s converted 42 of 47 save opportunities and got through most of them without stress. 

Kimbrel doesn’t mind if fans are laughing at his weird, dangling-arms pose while he’s gazing at his catcher’s signals.  There’s something scary about it, like he’s a different sort of beast.  

Whatever, Boston is stronger on the back end but may not have middle relievers as talented as Houston’s.  Which makes Sale’s condition all the more troubling.  

We haven’t seen the usual high-90s in Sale’s three brief outings since he declared  himself free of shoulder pain.  In his most recent start – 4 2/3 innings – his four-seamer averaged 90.1 mph.  That’s the lowest figure for his big-league career.

Sale insists his decline is due only to malfunction of his lower body.  All he must do is make a mechanical correction.  Like adjusting a carburetor.  

He needs more leg thrust to set up his sweeping sidearm delivery with its uniquely delayed release from his left hand.  “Not driving off my lower half to create the torque I have in the past,” he said.

Manager Alex Cora, the former Astros coach, has Sale slated to start the Division Series in Fenway Park on Friday.  “Hopefully he will find his mechanics again and be ready to go.”

There’s plenty of reason to doubt.  Sale is 6-feet-6.  His mechanics are more problematic than they are for a more compact pitcher.  His delivery has been screwed up and tinkered with for two weeks.  Why should it align perfectly now? 

So I like the Astros going all the way again.  I realize the law of probability says otherwise.  Optimistically, they have an 80% chance of beating Cleveland in the ALDS, which opens Friday at Minute Maid.  Let’s give them 60% at knocking off Boston in the AL Championship and 70% likelihood of success against somewhat less imposing National Leaguers.  That means 33.6% probability of Houston repeating as world champion.  So don’t bet your mortgage on this.

Also concerning: two heroes of the 2017 postseason — Springer and Carlos Correa – are physically impaired – the former by a sprained thumb, the latter by back pain that seems in remission at the moment.  There’s also Jose Altuve’s sprained knee.  He’s slipped from his MVP plateau, though anyone would accept a .315 BA.   

Compensating, Alex Bregman has developed into a remarkable 24-year-old leader, utterly relentless, the only third baseman ever with 30 homers, 50 doubles and 100 RBI.  And his glove is impeccable.  Although the Sox have more explosiveness, the Astros have a better run differential, +263 to +224.  Houston has more defense, a deeper roster and the stronger, healthier pitching staff.  That should be enough.