Alan Truex: On second thought, Astros aren’t better than Yankees

Chris Russo spends much of his time on MLB Network’s High Heat assuring listeners that the New York Yankees, not the Houston Astros, are the team to beat in the American League.  Like most New Yorkers, he has difficulty fathoming that something outside of New York is better than what’s inside.

When guests on his show argued that the Astros had far superior starting pitchers and an array of hitters that are almost as good, he conceded that Justin Verlander is better than any Yankees starter, but otherwise the rotations are equally undistinguished and that the decisive advantage for the Yanks is their bullpen.

He prefers Masahiro Tanaka over Gerrit Cole because “Cole is bad in the postseason and Tanaka is very good.”

Point taken, though the difference is not as vast as Mad Dog suggests.  Tanaka, rediscovering his splitter, threw 8 shutout innings in Toronto on Sunday, and he’s 3-2 with a 1.50 ERA in the postseason.  Cole for his postseason career is 2-3 and 3.72.  

True, Cole’s last playoff appearance, in Boston for Game 2 of the 2018 American League Championship Series, was a meltdown.  Verlander had beaten Chris Sale in the opener, and October underachiever David Price was on the ropes in Game 2. I doubt the defending World Series champs would have lost that series if they’d been up 2-0 with the next two games in Houston.  

But Cole, visibly nervous, could not hold a lead.  Houston lost 7-5 and went on to lose the next three.  The Red Sox went on to win the World Series over the Dodgers.

All the experts appearing on MLB Network are saying the Astros are improved this season, with All-Stars Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa healthy, which they weren’t a year ago, and with the arrival of perhaps the most lethal weapon they’ve ever had: 6-5, 240-pound Cuban immigrant Yordan Alvarez.

In this Year of the Rookie, the numbers for Alvarez stand apart: 46 games, 17 home runs, 51 RBI, .353 BA, .743 slugging, 1.18 OPS.  He’s a lefthanded batter who actually slashes slightly better against his own kind.

And he’s getting better every month.  His on-base decimal was .431 in June, .433 in July, and he’s .450 so far in August.  And by the way, he’s hitting .400 with runners in scoring position. He’s a lefthanded Giancarlo Stanton, and a lot healthier.

Even so, the Yankees have scored 50 more runs this year than the Astros.  And the laws of probability would augur for the Yanks being healthier in October than they are now.

Russo envisions his beloved Bronx Bombers winning a neck-to-neck battle with Houston for best record in the AL. 

“Home field will be critical in Yankee Stadium,” says Russo, whose loud, shrill voice has been called “a cross between a foghorn and a wounded animal.”

He did not seem distressed about the Astros’ blockbuster deadline trade that added six-time All-Star, one-time Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke to their rotation.

“Greinke is terrible in the postseason,” Russo scoffed. 

Here again, he makes a valid point, but exaggerates the deficiency.  Greinke for his postseason career is 3-4, 4.03 ERA. It’s not like a team has no chance in the playoffs with him on the mound.  Given that the Astros have a run differential of +184 and the Yankees are +156, Russo brings to mind the expression “whistling past the graveyard.”

But there’s no denying his knowledge of the sport and his perceptiveness at spotting Houston’s vulnerabilities. 

It was all there to see Sunday afternoon, with Verlander on the mound in Baltimore.  This shaped up as a laugher, the Astros with an 8-game win streak and coming off a 23-2 demolition of Camden Yards the day before.

Houston was one of the most prohibitive favorites Las Vegas has ever posted.  Some books had the money line at -500, meaning you had to bet $500 on the Astros to win $100.  

So what happens?  Verlander hangs his slider again and again, and the usually lame Orioles rap it repeatedly.  He strikes out 11 but gives up 9 hits and 4 runs in 5 innings.  

But not to worry.  Michael Brantley, arguably the most underrated player in the league, brings the visitors back with a bases-loaded triple in the top of the 9th.  So Roberto Osuna is in to close with a 2-run lead.  

Alas, Osuna blows his fifth save.  O’s win. Osuna has failed to convert two of his last six save opportunities.  His ERA for July was 4.22; for August it’s 10.13. He’s no Aroldis Chapman, except, perhaps, when it comes to physically abusing women.  But let’s move on from that.  

One of the Astros’ most astute executives recently told me, “Our bullpen is not as good as the stats indicate.”  

Indeed, that appears to be the case.  The two pitchers who emerged from the bullpen to become World Series heroes in 2017 were converted starters Brad Peacock and Lance McCullers Jr., and they’re now on the injured list.  There’s hope of Peacock healing in time for the postseason, but McCullers is a long way from Tommy John recovery.  

And there’s a flaky side to Greinke that’s concerning.  He recently said he didn’t want the “hassle” of a no-hitter.  And after his Astros debut he said he was “bored” and “lost focus” because of so much time in the dugout while his new teammates cavorted on the base paths.  He bagged his 11th win but rarely exceeded 90 mph, and he allowed 7 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings.

Granted, the bulk of the metrics point to the Astros outperforming the Yankees the rest of the way.  Houston won the season series 5-3. But my gut tells me Chris Russo in all his annoying madness may be right.  With their eternal mystique and constant regeneration of injury-mangled lineups and Chapman always there to turn off the lights, the Yankees if they secure home-field advantage will have the advantage.