Alan Truex: Dallas Keuchel is a victim of analytics
HOUSTON — Dallas Keuchel is an anachronism. Four years ago he was the best pitcher in the American League, destined for the Cy Young Award. Now, at the moderate age of 31, he’s a faded star.
He’s a metaphor for his times, the canny lefthanded pitcher, not a hard thrower, not a spin master, not – anymore — a $100 million investment.
Not even $20 million.
The Houston Astros last November offered Keuchel $17.9 million for his services in 2019, and he declined. His once powerful agent, Scott Boras, convinced him that once the season begins and wheels start flying off starting rotations, he will get the nine figures he deserves.
So, after seven months on the free-agent market and two months of throwing at Camp Boras in Southern California, Keuchel last week agreed to play the remainder of the season for $13 million. That’s what the Atlanta Braves will pay him, and then he will be a free agent and get to do this all over again.
Unfortunately, in the Age of Analytics he’s persistently old-school. He can’t compete in this new world. He doesn’t offer much WHIP or WAR, and he induces more grounders than strikeouts.
Never mind he’s low-ERA, low maintenance, high innings, high intangibles. Four years ago, being lefthanded in itself was a prized commodity. Now, not so much. In the Age of Analytics we see so many right-handed pitchers being more effective against lefties than they are against their own kind. Being left-handed no longer makes you special.
That changed overnight, on December 17, the day after the New York Yankees committed $34 million for two years of J.A. Happ, a former Astro, a left-handed, soft-throwing starter who’s five years older than Keuchel and has amazingly similar numbers.
Forget 2015 and Cy Young. Call it a fluke if you want, and consider only the two most recent seasons, 2017-2018, when Happ was 27-17 and Keuchel was 26-16. Keuchel had a slightly better ERA and 28 more innings over the same period.
One significant difference: In the postseason Keuchel is 4-2, 3.31 ERA, while Happ is 0-1, 22.50.
True, there was the issue of the compensation draft pick. The Yankees would have to give one to sign Keuchel, which they no longer had to do once the draft ended. Given the vagaries of baseball drafts, I’m a little surprised this was such a deal-breaker.
Good to see it finally happen. Bad for Boras, good for the Braves. Good for Keuchel, a gallant competitor and a much appreciated teammate.
Keuchel is a commanding presence: 6-feet-3, with a lumberjack’s beard. It would have been a shame for him to go to the Yankees and be forced to shave. I would have expected the Samson effect. Without the hair, not the same intimidator.
After all, Keuchel’s game is less smoke than it is smoke-and-mirrors. His retro pitching style is unsettling to batters. He throws a variety of pitches, none impressive by itself and all of them barely indistinguishable. Is that his slider or his sinker or his cutter? Whatever, he owns the low outside corner.
But just when you think he’s not throwing hard and he won’t risk an inside pitch, he busts a 91 mph four-seamer into the hands, and the batter is helpless. Nobody causes more adversaries to slam their bats into the ground, shattering them in utter frustration. They don’t know how he’s getting them out.
A change of leagues will be good for him; batters will need a few looks to adjust to his unorthodoxy.
What the analytics don’t tell you is that Keuchel knows how to pitch, how to escape trouble with a double-play grounder.
And he will share his secrets. He will be a steadying mentor to the Braves’ 27-year-old lefthanded starter, Mike Foltynewicz, who throws harder than Keuchel, but not as hard now as he did a year ago. From Keuchel he may learn how to win at under 95 mph.
While waiting for Keuchel to shed rust with three or four starts in Class AAA Gwinnett, the Braves have only three currently reliable starters: Julio Teheran, 28; Max Fried, 25, and 21-year-old Mike Soroka, who’s 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA. All can benefit from Keuchel’s veteran presence.
Keuchel said he’s eyed Atlanta all along. The Braves won the NL East last year, and the pitcher said he’s “always been an advocate of the formula of veteran leadership and young talent.”
Keuchel’s former Astros teammate, Collin McHugh, said, “A place like Atlanta, a good young team, it’s obviously a good fit for him. I’m surprised it took this long to get something done.”
It took this long because of a measly compensation pick. That provision of the Collective Bargaining Agreement is certain to be changed at the next labor negotiations. There’s obviously something unjust about a pitcher as proven as Keuchel being homeless two months into the baseball season.
