Alan Truex: Carlos Correa’s future in Houston is in doubt. Sadly
HOUSTON – Carlos Correa at 25 is one of the Astros’ most accomplished players, first pick of the 2012 draft, Rookie of the Year in 2017, key contributor to that year’s World Series championship. He was a hero in this year’s American League Championship Series, with clutch extra-base hits and spectacular defense.
As MLB Network’s Harold Reynolds observed, “He makes the plays look so easy. Everything’s on target, everything’s precise.”
So baseball fans in this city, already shaken by a spying scandal that could mean a long-term suspension for manager A.J. Hinch, are now rocked by more unsettling news. The team is negotiating with the New York Mets and possibly other teams to trade the popular Correa.
The 6-4, 215-pound shortstop asked general manager Jeff Luhnow about the rumors. Luhnow said not to worry, go enjoy your honeymoon. Correa, who was born in Puerto Rico, recently married a former Miss Texas, Daniella Rodriguez.
But there is reason for him to worry.
I reported in October that the Astros had determined that because of injury concerns Correa was not a wise long-term investment. He’s missed an average of 64 games per year in his three big-league seasons. He seems to have chronic back trouble, and last May he suffered the ultimate freak injury: a broken rib from an in-home massage.
I’ve since learned of another issue. Although he posts exceptional batting numbers — .926 OPS last season – Correa is considered a “mistake hitter.”
One front-office source put it this way: “If you leave a pitch in the middle of the plate he will jack it out of the park. But throw him a slider low and away and he has no chance of hitting it.”
This weakness was not so apparent in the regular season. But in the postseason, where he faced a procession of excellent pitchers, Correa hit .191.
It’s long been rumored that as their payroll expands the Astros will part with Correa and shift their most treasured asset, Alex Bregman, from third base to shortstop. During his time at LSU Bregman won the Brooks Wallace Award as college baseball’s best shortstop.
Because of Correa’s defensive excellence – 98 mph arm speed, 2 errors last season – the Astros have played Bregman primarily at third, where he’s thrived.
When Washington’s All-Star third baseman Anthony Rendon, former Houstonian, reached free agency in November, the Astros did not bid because they’re so pleased with Bregman at third.
One of the hottest rumors is that the Mets will send power-armed pitcher Noah Syndergaard and 24-year-old starting shortstop Ahmed Rosario to Houston for Correa.
Two problems with that proposal: Syndergaard is as injury-prone as Correa, and Rosario, while excellent offensively (.755 OPS), is below average in defensive metrics.
It’s more likely Correa’s successor will be 25-year-old Myles Straw, who hit .321 at AAA Round Rock last season and .269 in Houston. Though not a slugger, he’s athletic and fast (8 steals in 9 tries during 56 games for the Astros) and solid defensively.
Houston will pay Correa $7.4 million in 2020 and controls his rights, through arbitration, in 2021. His trade value is at its maximum now. He will be an unrestricted free agent entering the 2022 season.
I understand the injury concerns but not the qualms about his hitting. More than a few Hall of Famers struggled with low-and-away breaking balls, one of them being Houston icon Craig Biggio. Carlos Correa is bright and dedicated, and he’s one of the most personable and civic-minded of Astros. His development is far from complete. To lose him now could result in many years of regret.
