Alan Truex: Astros look like MLB’s best, despite pitching issues
Updated Friday, September 27, 2019
In a year in which every utility infielder is a power threat, it stands to reason that no team in Major League Baseball is very good.
The New York Yankees thought they were good, bashing more home runs than any ballclub in a century and a half, except for this year’s Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers. Of all teams.
Rob Manfred, the mad scientist who also happens to be commissioner, complained more than a year ago that “the bullpens are too good.” He bemoaned not enough action in the late innings.
He should be happy now, with only one trustworthy bullpen in the sport, and it belongs to the Yankees, who have something like the No. 15-ranked starting rotation in MLB.
The most solid pitcher in their rotation, 18-game winner Domingo German, is being investigated for domestic violence.
For him to be the Face of Baseball with the playoffs about to begin is the last thing Manfred wants.
So adios, Domingo, and it could be adios, Yankees, with J.A. Happ and his 5.01 ERA and 12-8 record subbing for 4.10 and 18-4.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were thought to be over the World Series hump with a lineup filled with power and a starting rotation in which Clayton Kershaw is 16-5 with a 3.05 ERA and might be just their No. 3 pitcher, behind Hyun-Jin Ryu with his 2.41 ERA and Walker Buehler, 13-4, 3.25 (after a slow start), with a combination of needle-threading control, 99 mph heat and effusive confidence.
The Dodgers played in the past two World Series but haven’t won one since 1988. Their chances this fall are compromised by leaks in the defense. Equally glaring issue is closing reliever Kenley Jansen. He’s laboring with a 3.70 ERA . He’s blown 4 of his past 10 save opportunities.
In a sense, the Dodgers are the perfect metaphor for this baseball season. They’re one dimensional on offense (all power) and defense (starting rotation). They’re severely flawed for a team with the National League’s best record.
They’re remarkably similar to the American League team with the best record, the Houston Astros. Like the Dodgers, the Astros have megatons of power and three admired starting pitchers. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke are a combined 47-12.
But a fourth starter is necessary, and the Astros, like the Dodgers and everybody else, aren’t sure they have one.
Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez observed on MLB Network that Wade Miley, Houston’s No. 4, is uniquely vulnerable to first-inning knockouts: “He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, and he’s a strike thrower. So teams try to ambush him early, put a couple of runs on the board.”
In fact, Miley has allowed seven first-inning home runs this season. In three of his past five starts he hasn’t gotten past the first inning.
And on those increasingly rare occasions when he gets a second chance, he’s not much better. Difficult to find a good inning for him. He’s allowed 21 runs in 11 1/3 total innings in September.
As for relievers to rescue Miley, Martinez said, “The bullpen may be the Astros’ weakness. It’s good enough to get by because of all the runs they put up. They don’t strike out, they can grind, and they can all take you deep.”
And there’s more. The under-the-radar fact about the Astros is that they field better than any other big-league team.
They lead MLB in defensive efficiency, converting 72% of batted balls into outs.
This becomes especially significant in late innings, when A.J. Hinch sends in his sub-package of defensive wizards: Martin Maldonado in to catch, Jake Marisnick from bench to center field. George Springer shifts from center to left.
With Spiderman Josh Reddick climbing the wall in right, there’s not a stronger perimeter defense in the sport.
Roberto Osuna is not everything you want in a closer — suspended 75 games for domestic violence, and he has temper issues on the mound. And later. After his sixth blown save he refused to speak with reporters. A good closer is unflappable. This guy is very flappable.
But with his outfielders as a security blanket, cutting off almost all the gappers, Osuna is usually effective. Much in contrast to Kenley Jansen, Osuna and his defense have not allowed a run on his past nine appearances.
The Astros and Yankees have been dueling for home-field advantage in their expected meeting in the AL Championship Series. Houston seems to have won that battle.
The Yanks have the greatest roster of injured players the sport has ever seen – 29 of their players made the list this season.
But you hardly miss the fallen stars (Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Encarnacion, Miguel Andujar, Gary Sanchez, Dellin Betances, et al) because manager Aaron Boone fills in so well with his versatile and resilient athletes.
That said, the loss of German swings the edge to Houston, even though the Yankees, like the Astros, still have three quality starters: Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and Luis Severino. Boone doesn’t want anything from Happ but a couple of opening innings. Otherwise Happ is a lefthanded specialist for the crowded bullpen.
Severino is back from a season-long sabbatical on IL. Now apparently healed of shoulder pain, he’s pitched 9 scoreless innings (2 walks, 13 strikeouts) over two starts, with velocity topping at 98.
Martinez, who’s rivaling John Smoltz as television’s most insightful expert on pitching, said of Severino: “The fact that he’s smooth and attacking the strike zone tells me he’s completely healthy. His release point is in good position; he has location.”
Asked about the postseason role for Severino, Boone said, “I want him to pitch his tail off for as long as he can.”
As much as slugging has taken over baseball, don’t be surprised if the postseason goes to those few who can pitch their tails off.
