Giants are MLB’s biggest surprise, can outpitch Dodgers in 2nd half
If anything seemed certain entering this baseball season it was that the Los Angeles Dodgers would finish ahead of their geographic and historical rivals, the San Francisco Giants. Seeking their fourth National League pennant in five years, the Dodgers could envision a challenge only from their neighbor to the south. The San Diego Padres have big-name talent: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish. The Giants have only one well-known star, catcher Buster Posey, who was thought to be in the sunset of his career at age 34.
Throughout the first half of this season the Giants basked in overachievement, staying neck and neck with the Dodgers even though the metrics suggested that LA was the slightly superior team. When the Giants closed the month of June by losing a 2-game series to the Dodgers in LA, the baseball world sighed and said, “What did you expect?”
But the dynamics changed in the days after that, as the Dodgers lost two of their three great pitchers. Trevor Bauer, last year’s Cy Young Award winner, was pushed onto administrative leave, accused of sexual assault. Then Clayton Kershaw, certain to be a Hall of Famer, went to the Injured List with inflammation in his forearm. He’s never had this injury before, but all too often it leads to Tommy John surgery as it did for another Dodger starter, Dustin May. Best case scenario is Kershaw will miss the rest of this month.
As for Bauer, the backlash over his public embrace of sadomasochism leaves little chance he will pitch again for the Dodgers.
They still have a Cy Young contender in Walker Buehler, but the bottom three in the current rotation are anything but innings-eaters.
Tony Gonsolin would be No. 6, behind Buehler, Bauer, Kershaw, Julio Urias and May if he were healthy. Gonsolin has been limited by shoulder pain, has not reached the end of the 6th inning in any of his 13 starts this year.
David Price, a Cy Young winner when he was in his prime, hasn’t been primed for several years. He’s a willing and effective middle reliever, but can he turn back time and stretch into a 6-inning starter?
After that, manager Dave Roberts must cobble together relievers to replace a fifth starter. The bullpen is deep, but a surge of innings portends arm injuries.
So here are the Giants, ready to pounce as soon as the curtain falls on the Shohei Midsummer Show. The Giants, now 2 games in front of LA, never accepted being an afterthought, fated to jockeying with the Rockies and D-backs at the tail end of the NL West.
Mike Krukow, former Giants pitcher now in their broadcast booth, said on MLB Network: “They have a chip on their shoulder the size of a butcher block. When they went into spring training they were laughed at. A lot of people picked them last in their division. That didn’t set well with veteran players like Posey and Brandon Crawford, (Evan) Longoria and Brandon Belt.”
The veterans Krukow cited are thriving except for first basemen Belt, whose right knee has undergone two surgeries and seems likely to require a third. But there’s no dropoff to his backup, Darin Ruf, who has an OPS 80 points higher than Belt’s .875.
Gabe Kapler, who lost his job to Joe Girardi in Philadelphia, has been masterful by the Bay at blending his lineup to churn out runs with small ball as well as long. The Giants lead the majors in home runs, with 132, yet they’re just 14th in strikeouts. The Dodgers outscored them by 35 runs heading into the All-Star break, but the Giants are steadier. Their OPS is .761, LA’s .743.
Crawford is a revelation at shortstop with a career year at 34. He’s magical with the leather and is slugging .556 with a .921 OPS.
Meanwhile, Posey could be Comeback Player of the Year, slashing .328/.547/.968. “Buster Posey is throwing as well as we’ve ever seen him throw,” Krukow said. “And his hip speed is back.”
As important as his offensive production is Posey’s counseling of the pitchers. The staff ERA of 3.28 is second only to the Dodgers’ 3.15 that’s certain to inflate without Bauer and Kershaw.
“The Giants’ pitchers trust the gloves behind them,” Krukow said. “They’re at the top of the league in defense. So they’re not trying to strike everybody out.”
Although not highly credentialed in April, Kevin Gausman (9-3 with a 1.73 ERA) made the All-Star team. A near miss: Anthony DeSclafani,10-3, 2.68.
San Fran’s No. 3 starter, Ex-Dodger lefty Alex Wood, is 8-3, 3.67. He’d be No. 3 if he were with the Dodgers now. The Giant advantage is the back of the rotation. Last week, in his first appearance after 5 weeks of IL with a strained shoulder, Logan Webb (3.63 ERA) threw three scoreless innings at the Phillies. And when Johnny Cueto is your No. 5 starter, you have a deep rotation. The bullpen, though not as strong as LA’s, is well stocked, with lefthander Jake McGee and righty Tyler Rogers combining for 29 saves.
Farhan Zaidi, President of Baseball Operations, and general manager Scott Harris have maneuvered their middle-class budget so well that there’s room for a Giant splurge at trade deadline. Rumors are that the target is the Chicago Cubs’ versatile 29-year-old All-Star Kris Bryant. He could upgrade second base and left field, where bats are not popping.
The Dodgers’ player payroll is the highest in MLB at $249 million, but they are in danger of losing out to a club that’s spending $154 million. The team that had starting pitchers to spare cannot afford to lose three of them.
