Alan Truex: Dodgers’ pitching should prevail in quality World Series

At first glance, the World Series that begins Tuesday night in Boston may look like one of the most one-sided ever.  The Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games this season.  By contrast, their National League adversaries, the Los Angeles Dodgers, were 92-70.

But wait.  The Dodgers are Jekyll-Hydes.  They stood a miserable 10 games under .500 in May: 16-26.  But since then they’ve played at least as well as the Red Sox: 76-46 compared to Boston’s 75-47.

A number of factors account for the transformation.

• Clayton Kershaw. The three-time Cy Young Award winner was disabled for most of May and June with bicep tendinitis.  But he was effective upon his return, finishing 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA.

• Yasiel Puig. The Wild Horse hit his first home run of the season on May 13.  He finished with 23, and he was correct in thinking he should have been named MVP of the LCS.  His 3-run bomb broke apart Game 7, and he hit .333 and put up a .983 OPS for the series, while Cody Bellinger was .200/.591.

• Kenley Jansen.  The All-Star closer’s season was marred by irregular heartbeat that may require surgery to correct.  But he’s been impeccable in the postseason: 6 appearances, 6 2/3 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits, 10 strikeouts.

• Hyun Jin-Ryu.  A groin injury limited him to 15 starts in the regular season.  But he was so overwhelming – 7-3, 1.97 ERA – that when the Division Series began, manager Dave Roberts moved him to No. 1 in the rotation, ahead of Kershaw.

• Walker Buehler.  The 24-year-old rookie was promoted from triple-A on April 23 and missed most of June and July with a rib injury,  But he was 8-5, 2.62 ERA for the season, finishing strongly as the No. 4 starter, will start Game 3 in the World Series. 

• Manny Machado.  One of baseball’s finest players – and just 26 — he was playing for the Baltimore Orioles until they traded him in July.  He filled a hole at shortstop that was created by an injury to Corey Seager in April.

• Justin Turner. Suffering a fractured wrist in spring training, the slugging third baseman didn’t get back into the lineup until May 15.  For the season he had a team-best OPS of .924, and he’s played well in the postseason.

• Dylan Floro.   He was pitching for Cincinnati until traded on July 4.  He’s been the unsung hero of the Dodger bullpen: 3-1, 6 holds, 1.63 ERA in 29 games.  He hasn’t allowed a run in six postseason appearances.

Much is being made of the Sox having the most productive lineup in baseball.  But in fact the Dodgers had the higher slugging average, (.442 to .404) and OPS (.774 to .745).  

If you look at only the last 120 games, when the Dodgers were basically the team they are now, the disparity would be greater.  While it’s true that Boston scored 876 runs for the season and LA 804, the Dodgers improved significantly over the final third of the season, the Red Sox not so much.  

Boston’s general manager, Dave Dombrowski, took care of his team’s most disturbing flaw, the starting rotation, with a deadline deal with Tampa Bay.  He acquired Nathan Eovaldi, who may be MLB’s hardest-throwing starting pitcher.  But Dombrowski had no way of knowing his heretofore reliable closer, Craig Kimbrel, would vaporize.   He’s appeared in five playoff games and has been scored upon in four of them.  In Boston he’s being called “The Heart Attack Closer.”

Boston’s bullpen is good, but LA’s is better, deeper and more balanced.  The Sawks have only one lefty in the pen, Eduardo Rodriguez, who is not someone you want to throw to the Dodgers.  He’s a demoted starter who had a so-so 3.82 ERA in the regular season and is a horrific 7.36 for the postseason.

The Dodgers are well staffed from the left with Caleb Ferguson, Julio Urias, and swing starter Alex Wood.  

Both teams have four quality starters – unusual in the World Series.  This year, thank God, there’s no Yu Darvish, whose 0-2 (21.60 ERA) skid was the singular reason why the Dodgers lost last year’s Fall Classic to Houston.  They probably would have won if they had started Kenta Maeda – or just about anybody – instead of Darvish.  

Perfect karma when the Chicago Cubs gave Darvish a $126 million contract and he proceeded to throw them out of a division championship.

But back to this Series, both teams have No. 1 starters who are not at peak form as they meet Tuesday night in a duel of classic lefties. 

Whether because of sore arm or aging (he’s 30), Kershaw’s velocity has dipped from 95 mph with his 4-seamer to an average of 91.

Similarly, Chris Sale has been 4-5 mph under the high 90s he was dealing before shoulder soreness landed him on the disabled list.

The difference is that Kershaw has been sharp and strong in the postseason – 19 innings, 2.37 ERA.  Sale is essentially still rehabbing.  Alex Cora, who’s splendidly managing the American Leaguers, hasn’t extended Sale beyond 5 1/3 innings in any games since July.  Sale’s ERA in September was 3.75; in October he’s 3.48.  He’s on the upgrade, but I don’t think he’s equal to Kershaw right now.

It’s going to be a wonderful Series to watch.  Has there ever been one with two rangier defensive outfields than these?  Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi for Boston; Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Puig for LA.

Betts, one of the most athletic baseball players ever — and expected to be the AL’s Most Valuable Player — will shift from right field to second base in the National League park.

You can give Boston a slight edge in firepower, but I expect the Dodgers to win because they have more reliable pitching and they came so close to winning rings a year ago.  That experience will help them now.